Scenario approach

In order to inform decision-makers' choices, KCE is increasingly being asked to consider different possible developments in the field of healthcare. The uncertainties associated with these developments can be analysed using the scenario approach, i.e. coherent descriptions of plausible futures and the path(s) leading to these futures. In this context, KCE has developed a step-by-step guide providing practical advice on the use of the scenario approach in KCE studies.

Scenarios, as understood here, are narrative descriptions of different plausible and coherent futures that depend on the (still uncertain) evolution of external factors beyond the direct control of stakeholders. The approach described in this report is a deductive and participatory method. It is based on three key steps:

• In the first phase (scoping), the focus question is defined and the stakeholders to be involved are identified.
• The second phase (scanning) consists of systematically gathering information to identify factors that may influence future developments, assess their potential impact on the subject under study, and evaluate the degree of uncertainty surrounding their occurrence.
• During the third phase (scenario building), the scenarios themselves are constructed on the basis of a conceptual framework and the narratives are written.

This guide is intended to be practical and non-exhaustive. It also includes numerous examples to facilitate understanding of the concepts.